Risk management

Assessment item 2

Assignment 2 – Modelling risk

Value: 35%

Due date: 18-Sep-2017

Return date: 11-Oct-2017

Length: 3,000 words max

Submission method options

EASTS (online)

Task

This assignment is worth 35 marks (35% of your final grade)

 

Theory (10 marks)
Please evaluate the following question. Your evaluation requires you to prepare and defend a chosen position:

‘Knowledge can be divided into uncertainty and perfect knowledge. Where does risk fit into this spectrum?’
(Hint: Evaluate the terms as measurable – i.e. a number between 0 and 1)


Workplace application (22.5 marks) 

Identify how your work case problem would benefit if more reliable quantitative analysis and forecasts were available. (Ideally you should the same work case problem from the first assignment, but if it does not lend itself well to this assignment you may choose another problem from your workplace).
Your research requires you to:
– Collect as much relevant data about the work case problem as possible. Analyse the data using descriptive statistics (measures of probability, frequency and central tendency such as mean, mode, median and standard deviation) and then plot the data in appropriate graphical forms.
– Assess the diagrams by determining the key characteristics of the data – i.e. summarise the patterns and skewness to interpret what these patterns are likely indicate about the data to date
– Use one quantitative modelling forecasting techniques to develop forecasts from the data – for example naive, moving average, exponential smoothing and/or regression
– Explain your key findings from the quantitative analysis. In doing so, apply the predictions to your work case problem and determine what the consequences would be for your workplace.
– Under what circumstances are qualitative modelling techniques suitable for forecasting? Explain how qualitative techniques could be applied to your chosen work case problem to improve future outcomes
Communication skills (1.25 marks) 
• Presentation of the work including: structure, format, grammar and images


Referencing skills (1.25 marks) 

• The application of APA referencing

 

Rationale

This assignment has been designed to address the following subject learning outcomes:

  • be able to critically interpret the risk management concept;
    • be able to interpret risk through modelling techniques;
    • be able to determine the probability, frequency and consequences of a risk event occurring.

 

This assessment builds on the information provided in the first assessment and the skills you have acquired in qualitative and quantitative analysis in the Modules. Having spent the first module working towards a more academic understanding of risk we now turn to measuring and modelling of risk.

The first task is a critical analysis of a statement regarding the key concepts of risk and risk analysis. This task is an exercise that is expected to evidence the sourcing of relevant reference material, critically analysing the key concepts of the reference and then applying the material to the tasks listed below. It requires the use of appropriate references to support your work. The use of references that provide generic information without any critical analysis will be viewed unfavourably.

The second group of tasks relates to risk analysis of the workplace case problem you selected in the first assessment. This assessment may be written in report style and you should use statistical tools such as tables, graphs, and descriptive techniques in your commentary. Marks will be awarded on the calculation of the quantitative information and the application of the results in your portfolio to key risk analysis and risk management concepts.

Marking criteria

Marking Criteria

High Distinction Distinction Credit Pass Fail
Theoretical analysis

This criterion is about defining, describing and evaluating the theoretical concepts. 

Specifically:

– the knowledge spectrum; 

– discussing how to measure risk;

– evaluation and justifying where risk sits on that spectrum.

Clear definitions and descriptions of the knowledge spectrum (using examples to aid reader understanding). Multiple measurements of risk have been thoughtfully investigated in detail. Presents a clear, logical, well-constructed and well-articulated argument of the position of risk on the knowledge spectrum supported by accurate, thoughtful and well stated justifications and a wide selection of academic literature. A highly insightful discussion supported with relevant examples, evaluations and conclusions. Clear definitions and descriptions of the knowledge spectrum (using examples to aid reader understanding). Measurement of risk thoughtfully investigated. Clear explanation of more than one viewpoint of where risk may sit on the knowledge spectrum with a stand taken and argued concisely.
Presents a clear, logical and well-constructed argument of the position of risk on the knowledge spectrum supported by considered justifications and solid academic literature. Perceptive examples, evaluations and conclusions.
Good attempt to define and describe the knowledge spectrum. Measurement of risk investigated. Some examples to aid understanding.
Presents a moderately well-constructed and mostly well-articulated argument of the position of risk on the knowledge spectrum, discussed with some logic and supported by some academic literature.
Good attempt at evaluations and conclusions.
Limited attempt to define and describe the knowledge spectrum. Measurement of risk incompletely investigated. Few/no examples to aid understanding.
Presents a limited and basic constructed argument of the position of risk on the knowledge spectrum which has limited academic support. The discussion is has basic logic with limited evaluations and conclusions.
Poor/no definitions and descriptions of the knowledge spectrum. Measurement of risk not investigated. No examples to aid understanding. No articulated opinion of the position of risk. Presents a poorly constructed and articulated argument of the position of risk on the knowledge spectrum, lacking logic and not supported by academic literature or justified in any way. Poor/no evaluations and conclusions.
10 marks
Application skills

This criterion is about: linking theory to a context, explaining how it relates to your chosen workplace case problem and making recommendations. 

Specifically:

collecting and analysing the descriptive statistics and plotting data;

– use a quantitative modelling technique to forecast;

– explain key findings;

– discuss suitability of qualitative modelling for forecasting.

The data collected is accurate, relevant and useful. All of the relevant data regarding descriptive statistics has been carefully and accurately examined in terms of the measures of probability, frequency, central tendency (mean, median and mode), standard deviation and data distribution. The data has been graphed/plotted elegantly and accurately with correct labelling. Key characteristics of the graphs/plots have been identified and accompanied by an insightful and thorough analysis and interpretation. An appropriate quantitative modelling technique has been accurately identified, explained and the choice justified. Forecasts have been well developed and explained. The predictions have been applied to the workplace case problem along with perceptive discussion of how these results could affect the business and future decisions. Qualitative techniques have been explained and thoughtfully considered with a recommendation on an appropriate and very useful technique. The application of a qualitative modelling technique has been carefully explored. The data collected is accurate, relevant and useful. All of the relevant data regarding descriptive statistics has been accurately examined in terms of the measures of probability, frequency, central tendency (mean, median and mode), standard deviation and data distribution. Data has been graphed/plotted accurately with correct labelling. Key characteristics of the graphs/plots have been identified and accompanied by a useful and relevant analysis and interpretation. An appropriate quantitative modelling technique has been identified, explained and the choice justified. Forecasts have been developed and explained. The predictions have been applied to the workplace case problem along with discussion of how these results could affect the business and future decisions. Qualitative modelling techniques have been explained with a recommendation on an appropriate technique. The application of a qualitative technique has been explored quite well. The data collected is useful. Most of the relevant data regarding descriptive statistics has been examined in terms of the measures of probability, frequency, central tendency (mean, median and mode), standard deviation and data distribution. Data has been graphed/plotted and labelled with few errors. Key characteristics of the graphs/plots have been mostly identified and accompanied by some analysis and interpretation. An appropriate quantitative modelling technique has been mostly identified, explained and the choice justified. Some forecast has been developed and explained. The predictions have been applied to the workplace case problem along with limited discussion of how these results could affect the business and future decisions. Qualitative modelling techniques have been somewhat explained and a recommendation offered. The application of a qualitative technique has been somewhat considered. Simplistic data collection. Some of the relevant data regarding descriptive statistics has been examined in terms of the measures of probability, frequency, central tendency (mean, median and mode), standard deviation and data distribution. Limited or inaccurate graphing or plotting. Few key characteristics of the graphs/plots have been identified and accompanied by a superficial interpretation ad analysis of no practical benefit. Quantitative modelling technique have been poorly identified. Forecasts are basic and/or accompanied by limited explanations. The predictions have a limited application to the workplace case problem. The discussion is basic but adequate. Little discussion of the business and future decisions. Qualitative modelling techniques have been poorly explained. Limited/inaccurate recommendations. Inappropriately recommended technique. Poor/no data collection. Little or no examination of the relevant data regarding descriptive statistics has been in terms of the measures of probability, frequency, central tendency (mean, median and mode), standard deviation and data distribution. Little/no graphing or plotting. Little/no characteristics of the graphs/plots have been identified and/or accompanied by a superficial interpretation ad analysis of no practical benefit. No quantitative modelling technique have been identified. Forecasts have not been developed and/or not explained. The predictions have not been applied to the workplace case problem. The discussion is generic and not useful. No discussion of the business and future decisions. Qualitative modelling techniques have not been explained. No recommendation on an appropriate technique. No application of a qualitative technique.
22.5 marks
Communication Skills 

This is about the presentation of the work including: structure, format, grammar, including images

Free of spelling and grammatical errors. Structure and format were clear, logical and consistent. Sentences were well constructed. Exceptional use of diagrams, images and tables, clearly relevant, explained and insightful links made. Free of spelling and grammatical errors Structure and format were clear Sentences were well constructed. Language was concise. Excellent use of diagrams, images and tables that are both visually appealing as well as clearly relevant and explained. Minor spelling and grammatical errors, sentences were mostly clear and complete. A good structure and format were used to aid the reader including diagrams, tables and images which were relevant to argument, (although still not fully explained or described). Some spelling and grammatical errors, sentences were not always clear or complete. Poor structure and formatting with limited use of headings, sub headings, some illustrations and diagrams, but not explained and only decorative. Poor spelling, grammar and punctuation. Concepts were not clear, no paragraphing or formatting- no images, tables or illustrations. No evidence of proofreading.
1.25 marks
Referencing Skills 

This criterion is about the application of APA 6th referencing and the depth of research 

Both the in text and end reference list are exemplary in terms of style and application of APA 6th. An exceptional number of relevant sources were applied in a highly academic manner demonstrating extensive research. The style is consistent with APA throughout the text and end reference list. Few points remain unreferenced. An excellent number of relevant sources were applied in an academic manner demonstrating wide research. There is consistent style, but application is not consistent with APA 6th. Some errors. A good number of relevant sources were applied demonstrating a reasonable research effort. There is an attempt to apply APA 6th referencing, but style and application are inconsistent. Many points remain unreferenced. A limited number of sources were applied demonstrating a poor research effort. There is limited or no attempt at in text or end of text referencing. A very poor research effort.
1.25 marks
Total marks/35

 

Presentation

Report style

It is expected your report will begin with an executive summary followed by a table of contents. An introduction is then written before the main body of your report. Headings and subheadings should be used. The end of your report should include a conclusion. The report should finish with your references (not a bibliography) followed by any appendices you may have used.

Be consistent in your layout and the use of font sizes and spacing between paragraphs.The font should be between 10-12pt size and an open faced type such as Arial or Calibri. The spacing should be 1.5.

Do not submit PDF’s. These will be returned without feedback

 

Requirements

Do not submit PDF’s. These will be returned without feedback

NB:To be eligible for an Additional Assessment on a margin fail grade at the end of session (i.e. cumulative mark is between 45-49.5), all assessments must be submitted.

 

 

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